Plot Twist, GFS and ECMWF WASTEPAPER? very difficult time for mathematical models produced in large computing centers worldwide, the difficulties were not enough accused in recent weeks: the strong message passed in some circles of weather information that was two prestigious forecasting models were completely distorted processing of weather trends, if not distorted. The emissions modeling drawn yesterday (and also those of the previous day) were not therefore be considered valid: an interpretation probably extreme, born from a NOAA press release, where reference was made to initialization errors.
What better opportunity to then blame the glare of the models had the last period and thus justify the sudden change in the trend that all forecasters have faced? Indeed, confusion has reigned supreme models so far, but do not believe that these errors have upset input to certain trends, but rather other factors. It would be advantageous for us to argue otherwise, but after careful checks there is no evidence of this: we must first admit that the initialization errors are normal for the computer centers (think several metar "How High" from the various stations Weather spread around the world), but the phase of data assimilation in models is very sophisticated and is not limited only to introduce the atmospheric data collected by instruments on Earth.
The latest press NOAA, who created all the confusion (?), Are bulletins that illustrate the simple diagnosis (among other things, focused on North America) on the behavior of the models in the face of some errors and how these can then init influence the estimate, providing an opinion on a case by case basis. In essence, the initialization errors are recurrent and in fact almost always present. It would be rather great if the original data were complete and without errors, because it means that the weather forecast could approach certainty, something from which we are obviously very distant. Admitting the fact that some buoys oceanic data had detected very stoned as we have heard, their impact would likely be negligible, provided that these measurements are actually finished in the chaos of the complex calculations of the brains, bypassing the quality control. Finally, it is therefore likely to create a case much larger than it really is. It 'true that the reports have highlighted the init errors that compromised some details on the evolutionary GM (Global Model) even in the short term, but everything seems back in the ordinary administration. From here to say that the models are not considered valid passes there and there is some evidence to justify the low predictability shown by the maps with the alleged shortcomings or errors in the heavy start-up phase.
( نتمنى أن تكون المشاركات في قسم متابعة الاحوال الجوية في سوريا ذات فائدة للأعضاء وليست نقاشات جانبية مهما كانت النقاشات وأن تكون الأسئلة في مكانها ولا تكون محددة الى منطقة أو مدينة وخصوصا توقعات الثلوج المختصين يضعون توقعاتهم والعلم عند الله )
كل مشاركة مخالفة وخارجة عن مضمون الموقع يحق للمشرفين والأدارة حذفها
الموقع مختص بالطقس وبعيد عن اي مواضيع اخرى
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اتمنى من الجميع مشاركتنا في معاً لجميع أكبر موسوعة صور من سوريا جنة الأرض
.................................................. ....... اسرع واسهل برنامج لتصغير حجم الصور
.................................... طقس سوريا عالفيس بوك
.................................... طقس سوريا عالغوغل بلس
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الاوروبي وجفس وتخبط في التوقعات
العرض العادي
